USE YOUR VOTE
By
Mickey Blue Eyes

Friday, 20th July, 2007, 4.00 pm, another taped meeting with Keith Wyness.

The topic was of course the notion of a new stadium in Kirkby. There was only time to shoehorn a few brief questions on other topics at the end.

If you have a vote in the forthcoming ballot I urge you to use it whatever your opinion, for or against. Only in that way will the clear voice of the fans be heard. Then, so be it whatever the decision. That is democracy. No other club has ever allowed this kind of binding ballot on such an important issue.

Meantime I urge you to avoid the propaganda of hysterical nonsense. You will find some chastening FACTS to help you in Appendices “A” and “B” at the end of this transcript. These crush some persistent myths. Appendix “B” might make uncomfortable reading for those few Evertonians inclined toward self-delusion, but Royal Blue realists will find it informative.

Here’s the transcript. Once again, make up your own mind.

MBE: Thanks for seeing me again, Keith. This is really an attempt to dot the i's and cross the t's in the stadium matter, so far as we can. I’m aware you have issued information on the club website and in press interviews, and that it will be a continuing process. Perhaps we can look at it in more detail. I hope we can clarify some things.

When was the scheme first broached within the club?

KW: When I first arrived I identified that our stadium revenues weren’t competitive, so I had to look at all the options. For instance I looked at the Kings Dock experience to see what could be learned from it. It became clear quite quickly that in order for Everton to get any stadium project off the ground we needed an enabling development of some description to be able to reduce our contribution to construction costs.

MBE: Well, that’s what the Kings Dock was in essence, wasn’t it?

KW: Yes, it needed that, plus retail and other things. Also, since that time the face of Liverpool has changed. The Grosvenor development has started and many other things are happening in the city, all of them driving up land values. If there was to be a big enough project, an approximate 500,000 square foot development would be needed to make a significant contribution towards a stadium. It would have to be further away from the main commercial hubs in the city to avoid clashes in demand and avoid planning application problems. I was also working with Knowsley on the new training ground and potential issues there. I was also working with Terry Leahy on the club overall. Out of those conversations the possibility of a new stadium in Kirkby emerged about eighteen months ago.

MBE: Whose idea was it originally? Who leads the project now?

KW: The concept was a combination of three like-minded parties looking to develop separate projects. There were other projects we examined as well, at Switch Island and other places. But Kirkby came up to be quite deliverable. In terms of who leads it now, it’s a tripartite project with Tesco as the lead developers. Obviously Knowsley are a key player in a three-way partnership.

MBE: Since it’s such a large project - £400 million? – Everton Football Club are not in a position to lead a scheme of that size are they? One presumes, then, the overall project is driven by Tesco.

KW: Yes. As I said, they are the lead developer. But we control the stadium element. There’s much the same mix in the Grosvenor development in the city centre, as you would expect.

MBE: When do you expect the club’s final decision to be made, Yes or No?

KW: If the ballot comes back as a No then we would not be moving the project forward. If it’s a Yes then we will proceed with negotiations. We would then hope contracts would be signed in September to move forward.

MBE: How was the format of the ballot decided?

KW: We had to provide a reliable data base the Electoral Reform Society were happy with. They were happy with our season ticket data base going back three years. They were happy with the shareholders data base, and Evertonia members data. We felt that is a very strong representation of fans who actually come to games. We are up to about 35,000 in that data base.

MBE: So the Electoral Reform Society are happy with the format?

KW: Yes they are. We wanted to avoid just one years season ticket holders because it would be unrepresentative. The format is a good across-the-board resolution.

MBE: Well, there’s no perfect solution. Likely there would be complaints whatever the ballot format. That’s democracy. Can we just finalise once and for all who is qualified and who isn’t?

KW: It’s anybody who has held a season ticket during the last three years (within that, anyone holding multiple season tickets in one name will get a single vote. This avoids plural and block votes), shareholders and adult members of Evertonia. If you are a season ticket holder AND shareholder you will get one vote. We’re working through the numbers now to finalise the voting register.

MBE: What is the period of voting?

KW: We are still waiting on the final dates for delivery of the brochures and the ballot forms, but we hope it will be some time within the next two weeks. Then the fans will have 2-3 weeks to respond.

MBE: How soon will you know the result after all the votes are in?

KW: The Electoral Reform Society feel it will be within 24-48 hours. We will be guided by their expertise.

MBE: What percentage either way will be binding?

KW: The chairman has said, and he will be saying it again, if it’s a No vote the process will not be taken further.

MBE: So if it’s just over fifty percent No, then it’s a definite No, even if it’s only 50.01 percent?

KW: That’s my understanding of the chairman’s and the board’s policy. If it’s a No vote, then we won’t be going.

MBE: Which leads me on to the obvious question – is the vote on its own binding, no other factors will be taken into consideration?

KW: Yes it will.

MBE: Irrespective of what the directors think?

KW: Yes.

MBE: You can’t be clearer than that!

Can we move on to the design of the stadium? What is the actual, not nominal, capacity?

KW: 50,000.

MBE: Is there expandability in it?

KW: If you fill in the corners in the present concept design you can reach up to 60,000. But there’s no immediate plan to do that until circumstances are right. The more successful the circumstances the more likely we would act sooner rather than later.

MBE: On the internet 3D graphics the corners are shown as open, which my old prof told me is one way of judging how good an architectural design is, by how it “turns a corner.” It made a distinct impression on me……………

KW: ………………..but the corners aren’t open, they are encased in glass panels at roof level and vertically around the corner. They follow the shape of the roof and the external envelope. This helps in limiting acoustics out of the stadium, and also increases it inside the through reverberation.

MBE: Okay……..but it isn’t too clear on the internet graphics, though it might be on large hard copy printouts.

KW: Maybe, but we have to comply with other planning requirements and this is one way of dealing with it. We will be releasing interior graphics tomorrow and it will make that area of design much clearer.

MBE: Design of corporate facilities. As I’ve mentioned in previous interviews, Keith, these are a design bugbear of mine. I feel they should be kept out of visual sight lines as much as possible. I don’t think it gives the right feel for a football stadium. If they’re prominent it only emphases divisions with the fans. I think Arsenal made a disastrous design mistake with a corporate tier ringing the Emirates Stadium. How at the moment do you intend to deal with it in this concept?

KW: This will be clearer in the additional perspectives to be released tomorrow.

MBE: Will they be located under the top tier, at the rear? I think the way it has been done at Old Trafford works, and at White Hart Lane too.

KW: Yes, but of course there’s still a lot of design work to be done. We are only at the initial concept yet.

MBE: Below-stands spaces in the stadium.

When I was in Cologne to look at FC Köln’s ground these spaces had not been dealt with at all. It was very “bare bones structure” and simply didn’t look good. It doesn’t matter how symmetrical you make the columns, beams and slabs, they are strictly concrete utilitarian in appearance, something a mere engineer would do, not an architect. Looking at the Kirkby concept, these spaces have been filled in, but only two sides are shown. Is it filled in on all four sides?

KW: Yes it is.

MBE: What are the use proposals?

KW: Catering, merchandising, fans’ spaces – social areas, clubs, still to be finalised.

MBE: One of the fans’ complaints about the Kirkby locale is the lack of pubs to congregate in before and after the match. If these aren’t provided in the stadium building then there is a danger the match-going day will be limited to just the game. A time-honoured tradition will be lost. It wouldn’t bother me in the slightest to see less beer-bellies but for many it is paramount.

KW: Well, you have also to think of what Kirkby town centre will be, not just as it is now. It won’t be a business park in the middle of nowhere. The overall development will double the size of Kirkby town center and increase the commercial facilities in it, including pubs. The overall addition is 500,000 square feet of commercial, retail and leisure space.

MBE: Are you thinking of stadium adaptability for concerts and non-football events?

KW: Yes.

MBE: Standing areas?

KW: We would need a change in the law for that to happen. I don’t think it is forthcoming.

MBE: I’m glad about that. There are still many local emotional scars from the crowd disasters of the 80s. Also, the organised hooliganism of that era drove many people away from the game. Gates fell to a post-Second World War low.

KW: Well, there’s a lot of fans across the country who would disagree with you. They would like to see limited return of standing areas. But I don’t think it’s going to happen anyway, so it’s a moot point.

MBE: Further design elements of the stadium, its “iconography” – what is your present thinking on this, bearing in mind that of course all worthwhile architectural design usually costs more?

KW: It’s important to make the building iconic, but not to overdo it. I think we have here a very good basic canvas to work from. We don’t want to over-complicate it. As the debate goes on some great ideas will emerge.

MBE: What the present images do not show are important matters such as the approaches to the building and the Master Plan for the area. Though the “first shot” Master Plan does show what looks like a wide avenue, which has great design promise.

KW: Yes, this too will be further developed. We would like to refine that design to include a wide boulevard approach if we can. We would like to emulate the main access point at Köln if we could, which I think is brilliant, but with our own variation.

MBE: Colours and lighting affects matter a great deal, though you don’t see much use of primary colours in this country because of the climate and its uncertain sunshine levels. For the most part, British architectural colours are grey, sandstone or otherwise subdued. It’s a pleasure to see the use of Royal Blue in this concept, though.

Mind you, I’m reluctant to get into any of this too much. It can be very subjective. We all know a camel is a horse designed by committee.

Given the outline timescale you mentioned, when do you think the Planning Application could be made?

KW: We hope October if everything went well.

MBE: Does that give you enough time to receive and act on constructive suggestions from the fans in respect of the design?

KW: That would be a very difficult process to manage and there’s no intention to do it at the moment.

MBE: Who are the architects?

KW: Barr Construction would be the designers of the basic structure. KSS Architects are appointed by us to design the external envelope and key interior elements, plus to emphasise an Everton identity.

MBE: Is this a design-and-build scheme?

KW: Only on the basic structure.

MBE: Who will project manage overall stadium design and construction?

KW: This would be a company named AYH who project managed the Emirates Stadium.

MBE: Would the stadium be the very first building to be constructed in the overall development?

KW: Yes it would. There might be some limited commercial space to go with it, but the rest of the development would follow on pretty quickly anyway. The whole idea would be for the entire development to open together in 2010 hopefully.

MBE: So what is the construction period for the stadium?

KW: We look to deliver it in May 2010 with an eighteen months construction period. Actual start date depends on the Planning Application process.

MBE: Don’t you think that construction period is optimistic?

KW: Not really.

MBE: Costs and finances. Is the business plan complete for the whole thing?

KW: It is in terms of forecasts and projections for revenues for the new stadium. Obviously we have to keep an eye on construction costs and inflation figures.

MBE: Does this include analysis and identification of increased revenue streams?

KW: Sure.

MBE: Out of all this, what is the total projected construction cost of the stadium?

KW: For commercial reasons I’m not going to give you an exact number but it will be less than a hundred million. But we believe we will be getting a stadium to the value of a hundred and fifty million by the time it opens. If you were to put it to the outside market then, it would cost a hundred and fifty million to build. It’s always dangerous to put a figure on construction costs but in this case the current estimate is for under a hundred million.

We are getting a contribution of fifty million from Tesco through the increased value the project will bring. We believe we are getting this value because of their association with Barr.

MBE: But it’s an equally dangerous word, this word “value” too, isn’t it? It’s only what individuals say is the value at any given moment isn’t it? There are even disagreements among professionals as to its meaning.

KW: I think you can quantify it by calculating its value on the open market.

MBE: But until you actually test it in the market it’s notional isn’t it?

KW: Yes, but there are ways you can measure it. We’ve had some really good experts on this and they believe the fifty million I have mentioned would be worth seventy-five million elsewhere on the open market.

MBE: So what will be Everton’s total contribution to the construction costs of the stadium?

KW: It will be the difference between the fifty million and the increased value I have already mentioned. If the difference was twenty-five million, then we would have to find that figure. And that would be funded from the sale of Goodison and stadium naming rights – if there was a difference between what that raised we would have to take on additional debt to cover it.

MBE: We won’t get that much for the Goodison site will we?

KW: Between ten and fifteen million.

MBE: Really? Isn’t that optimistic?

KW: No, it’s realistic.

MBE: So what is the projected extra debt? And how will it be paid?

KW: We won’t know the precise amount until we negotiate the sale of Goodison and strike a deal on the naming rights. We can raise money against the new stadium, since that will be a more valuable asset than Goodison.

MBE: From the business plan, what is the projected increase in annual turnover from the new stadium? You have said in the past that you wished to achieve a sixty million turnover at Goodison. You did that, then it fell back slightly.

KW: We have to look at it separately from TV revenue, which is growing exponentially at the moment. We calculate we will get an extra ten million revenue from stadium activities, increase in attendances, where we think ticket prices will be, extra corporate facilities, extra sponsorship. We think that figure is pretty conservative.

MBE: Is that the origins of the ten million quoted in the press as being available for David Moyes to bring in new players?

KW: Yes.

MBE: Are there possible adverse affects from the move? Loss of fans?

KW: No, I don’t believe that at all.

MBE: No, I don’t either, not to any significant level anyway. I believe this is just scaremongering or plain mischief-making. Oh there might be a few hundred but that’s the kind of thing you get every season from people who simply stop being interested in the game or find themselves short of money or move away, what economists call “natural wastage.” I don’t believe for a single moment it would affect our average.

KW: There’s no evidence whatever to show similar clubs in a similar situation have lost fans.

MBE: Well, I did some quick research into this for a few hours last night and the evidence is quite clear. The so-called “new stadium affect” results in a remarkable INCREASE in average figures for clubs who moved into new grounds. I looked at the average gates before and after the moves of Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Manchester City, Bolton Wanderers, Southampton, Coventry City and Leicester City. In every case their average attendance rose in the first season and in subsequent seasons maintained a level well above attendances in their old grounds. The average first-season increase for all of these clubs was 55.51%. (See Appendix A).

KW: Yes, we’ve already looked at that as part of our own research. Present thinking is that the “new stadium affect” persists for about three years then becomes dependent on team performances, which you would expect.

MBE: The point is, though, none of them have fallen back to where they were before. Sunderland’s and Southampton’s figures are particularly remarkable even taking into account their relegation. Mere novelty value doesn’t account for it. In each case the fans have been reinvigorated in their enthusiasm.

KW: The argument is even more compelling for us because this is a proposed move to a catchment area of four million within a forty-five minute drive, as opposed to the present catchment area of one point three million with the same drive time. The Liverpool-Manchester corridor is one of the fastest growing parts of Britain and there are lots of young families moving into it, and more planned during the next ten years. Many of them will have no affiliation with a local club. It’s up to us to go and claim them and increase our fans base.

MBE: On average attendances, there are also some uncomfortable facts for us Evertonians which also bear on the matter. These facts explode a lot of urban myths. For instance, our average league gate since 1972 amounts to only 31,494. We even had seven straight years with average attendances of less than 30,000, our worst since the 1930s. In 1984, a Cup-winning year, our average gate was an unprecedented low of 19,343. And though our average gates have increased steadily since the Cup win of 1995 there is clearly a lot of room for improvement for a club that in the 1960s had only one seasonal average gate below 40,000. (See Appendix B). In my view this makes the need for a new stadium even more imperative, wherever it may be, whether it is Kirkby or anywhere else. We need a fresh start.

Given this information, what is your projected average gate in your Kirkby business plan?

KW: I’m not prepared to disclose that number. It will obviously be in the average of 40K but we’re working on different scenarios at the moment.

MBE: If Kirkby doesn’t happen, what are the average maintenance costs of Goodison Park?

KW: It’s about a million pounds. This year we’ve had an abnormal cost of half a million for steelwork. It is only going to get bigger each year without improving.

MBE: What was the half million for?

KW: Cleaning and recoating steelwork to keep it up to safety standards.

There’s a cost balance to be maintained: Whether you spend just enough on the old stadium to keep it safe and functioning or spend on improvements which don’t give us sufficient return on capital employed. Obviously there would be a reduction in maintenance costs in a new stadium with a brand new structure already up to modern standards.

MBE: If Kirkby doesn’t happen, and we stay, what is the club’s policy? There are only two options aren’t there – rebuild within the existing site boundaries, or somehow acquire all of the triangular land plot between Bullens Road, Gwladys Street and Walton Lane?

KW: At present we don’t believe either are deliverable, simple as that.

One of the factors many people are not aware of is that The Green Guide is being re-written this Summer and it will introduce more stringent environmental requirements. Any new development will have to comply with it when it is finalised. That could mean we end up at Goodison Park with a capacity of about 30,000, depending on the final form of the legislation, if we were to rebuild within the existing site boundaries. Plus we would of course have to pay for it solely out of existing revenue levels, and we just can’t do that – all the wishful thinking in the world won’t change it.

Now, if we were to increase the size of the footprint I don’t know how we would acquire the land, how we would pay for it and without an enabling development of sufficient size how we would pay for that either.

MBE: Can we just be clear here, Keith, on rebuilding within the existing boundaries? Is it club policy we cannot obtain the kind of stadium we want within existing site boundaries?

KW: Absolutely. It’s very clear.

MBE: That being the case, if we stay, the only practical option is to acquire the additional land I described previously. The only way that can be done is by local authority compulsory purchase of private houses and other private property and by incorporation of council owned property (the school?) in that area. What has been the reaction of Liverpool City Council to that?

KW: We have not received anything that is deliverable on that or any other site. Nobody in their right mind is saying there aren’t other sites because obviously there are. That isn’t the point. What matters is the cost of a scheme and how the money is raised and paid back, as well as the planning suitability of individual sites. The Kirkby scheme meets those criteria.

MBE: So, has there been no offer to expand the footprint?

KW: There has been no offer to expand the footprint in a deliverable manner.

MBE: Okay. Do we have time to consider other matters?

KW: Briefly, yes.

MBE: Where do we stand on season ticket numbers?

KW: We’re at about 23,000, ahead of the same point last season. It has to do with the pricing policy and the “early bird” offer on the backs of a successful playing season. Once again Evertonians have shown their commitment. We expect the figure to increase as the season gets nearer.

MBE: The Everton Collection put together by David France?

KW: The Heritage Lottery application result is due in September. We remain very hopeful that will be a positive decision. We put together a superb bid and indications are very positive so far. We’ve reached half the target amount ourselves. The application is for £850,000 to a million pounds, which will cover purchase, and set-up and administration costs for a limited period.

MBE: The TV subscription service?

KW: It’s at a record high just now. Mark Rowan confirmed the Everton pre-season games have given it a boost too. Everything at the moment is going well.

MBE: And finally – and I know you can’t be specific! – are you optimistic we can get more players in before the season starts?

KW: Transfer window opportunities fluctuate. Sometimes they come early, some times late. Last pre-season we had early opportunities. This pre-season it hasn’t worked out that way. But I think you will see a couple of names in very short order. We are all acutely aware we have European games as well as the Premier League fixtures to get through. Plus it looks like it is going to be the most competitive Premier League season ever, so we want make the squad as strong as our situation allows.

MBE: Okay. Thanks for meeting with me again, Keith.

KW: My pleasure. Here’s to a good season.

APPENDIX A – NEW STADIUM AFFECT ON AVERAGE LEAGUE ATTENDANCES.

*Average percentage difference of 7 clubs = Plus 55.51%
SOURCE: http://european-football-statistics.co.uk/attnclub

APPENDIX B. EVERTON FOOTBALL CLUB: AVERAGE LEAGUE ATTENDANCES.

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